Exactly twelve months after Governor Greg Abbott signed a controversial mid-decade congressional map intended to flip five seats to the GOP, new polling indicates that Republicans are losing ground in the very South Texas districts they engineered to win.

On August 29, 2025, Abbott enacted the aggressive redistricting plan—dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Map”—following an intense push by President Donald Trump to insulate the party against historical midterm losses. To deliver a five-seat Republican windfall, the Legislature merged two predominantly Black districts in Houston, paired two Democratic strongholds in Dallas–Fort Worth, merged two liberal districts in Austin, and carved up South Texas to oust two Democratic incumbents. Texas House Democrats had mounted quorum breaks and court challenges to halt the measure, but were ultimately unable to stop its passage.

One year later, shifting national headwinds and durable local candidates have upended the GOP’s calculations. Rising inflation tied to expanded Canadian tariffs, a surge in retail gasoline prices sparked by conflict with Iran, and the fatal shooting of two protesters by federal agents during an immigration demonstration in Minnesota have collectively altered the political landscape.

A new series of surveys from Texas Southern University reveals that Democratic candidates currently hold leads in three targeted South Texas districts:

District 28: Cuellar Outpaces Tijerina

The Laredo-centered 28th District was redrawn into territory Donald Trump would have carried by 11 percentage points in 2024. However, nine-term incumbent Henry Cuellar, a moderate Democrat with deep regional roots, has maintained broad constituent support. Despite facing federal corruption charges—which he denied before receiving a presidential pardon from Trump—Cuellar leads Republican challenger Tano Tijerina by 11 points in the latest poll.

District 34: Gonzalez Retains Advantage

In the coastal 34th District stretching south to Brownsville, mapmakers expanded Republican-leaning turf to create an estimated 10-point advantage for Donald Trump. Nevertheless, incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez continues to outrun the top of the ticket, leading Republican challenger Eric Flores by 3 percentage points.

District 15: Pulido Surges Ahead of De La Cruz

The most significant shift appears in the 15th District, where sophomore Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz faces re-election in a newly configured seat drawn to favor Trump by 17.5 points. More than half of the district’s voters are new to De La Cruz. Her challenger, moderate Democrat and two-time Latin Grammy winner Bobby Pulido, currently leads the incumbent by 5 percentage points across the predominantly rural district.

District 35: National Republicans Step In

The newly drawn 35th District—an open seat formed after Austin representatives Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar were drawn together, prompting Doggett’s retirement—stretches from San Marcos through parts of San Antonio down to Floresville.

The competitive environment recently drew U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson to South Texas to campaign for Republican nominee Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Monica De La Cruz. He faces Democratic nominee Johnny Garcia, a Bexar County sheriff’s deputy running on a moderate platform.

While late-summer polling numbers frequently fluctuate ahead of November early voting, current trajectory indicators suggest that the battle for South Texas remains highly competitive, contrary to the GOP’s initial redistricting projections.