South Texas Weather Forecast: Slim Rain Chances and Rising Temperatures This Week
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South Texas will see only minimal opportunities for rainfall this week as high pressure continues to maintain hot, mostly dry conditions across the region. While a few isolated showers and thunderstorms could pop up in the afternoons, more than 80% of the area is likely to remain completely dry, with temperatures heading toward the triple digits by the weekend.
Rain Chances Remain Isolated Through Midweek
Despite an extended dry spell since mid-July, annual rainfall totals for San Antonio remain about 23% above average at 26.54 inches. However, significant relief from the heat is unlikely over the coming days:
- Tuesday through Thursday: Highs will regularly climb into the upper 90s, while high humidity levels drive heat index values between 102 and 104 degrees.
- Precipitation Odds: Overall rain chances will hover at just 10% to 20% each afternoon. Any storms that manage to develop will be localized and brief, generally tapering off within 30 minutes.
Weekend Outlook: Triple-Digit Heat Returns
| Day | Expected High | Heat Index / Conditions | Rain Chance |
| Wednesday | Upper 90s | Around 102°F; mostly sunny | < 20% |
| Thursday | Upper 90s | Around 102°F; humid and bright | < 20% |
| Friday | ~100°F | Oppressive heat; strengthening ridge | < 10% |
| Saturday | ~100°F | Nearly 10°F above seasonal average | < 10% |
By Friday and Saturday, atmospheric high pressure will strengthen, suppressing storm development and pushing temperatures up to around 100 degrees. Rain chances will drop below 10% heading into the weekend.
Relief on the Horizon?
Long-range forecasting models indicate that a cold front could approach South Texas between September 15 and September 17. If this system holds together, it could bring a noticeable drop in temperatures alongside substantially higher chances for widespread rain across the region.
